四川省农民收入结构分析

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四川省农夫支出布局剖析

文章写作倾向

??? 农夫支出布局间接关系到农夫人均支出的高低。延续数年农夫支出增幅降低,一些地域农夫支出不升反降,农夫支出增进迟缓这一问题也就成为当前我国农业和乡村经济中表示最为突出的问题,添加农夫支出也是关系到我国国民经济稳步发展的要害问题之一。本文拟从我国农夫支出的形成入手,讨论现阶段农夫支出的次要形成,为当局经由过程多种道路进步农夫支出供应参考。

树立模子

Y=β1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+u

X2—劳动者报答支出?????????? X3—家庭运营纯支出

X4—接收当局转移取得的支出?? Y=均匀每一个农夫每一年的可支配支出

搜集数据

以《四川统计年鉴》为按照,采纳光阴序列数据。见表(一)

注:数据中的各项支出都是均匀每一个人的一项支出,不是农户的支出 。

参数估量

按照回归的了局(见表二)可晓得样本回归函数:

?Y=41.341193+1.19166X2+1.950657X3-2.874068X4

??? (0.664679)? (4.589561)?? (7.198040)?? (-0.964461)

? =0.993192?????? =0.991733?? F=680.7665

五、模子检讨

?(一)?经济意思检讨

?经由过程回归咱们能够晓得:X4的系数不符合经济意思。由于当局转移支出的添加普通会添加农夫的支出,而不是淘汰农夫的支出。故咱们需求对设定的模子举行统计检讨和计量检讨,经由过程进一步的批改来改良设定的模子。

?(二)?统计检讨

?1、拟合优度检讨

?可决系数和批改可决系数的值都比拟好,阐明

顺叙样本回归函数对样本观测数据的拟合优度能够接收。

?2、参数明显性检讨

?由回归了局可知,常数项和X4系数的t值都不明显。

?3、方程明显性检讨

?由参数估量表得F统计量为680.7665,在5﹪的明显性程度下,查自由度为(3,14)的F散布表,得临界值F0.05(3,14)=3.34。由于F=680.7665>F0.05(3,14)=3.34,故模子总体是明显的。

?(三)?计量检讨

?1.多重共线性检讨

?Correlation Matrix

?X2?X3?X4?

????

X2? 1.000000? 0.926620? 0.857506?

X3? 0.926620? 1.000000? 0.959251?

X4? 0.857506? 0.959251? 1.000000?

?

?经由过程此表,咱们能够看出阐明

顺叙变量之间具有高度的线性相干。虽然可决系数和批改可决系数的值表白方程对变量的拟合度较好,然而X4参数估量值的标识与经济意思相反。表白模子中具有阐明

顺叙变量之间的多从共线性。

?上面经由过程逐步回归法,来纠正模子。按照调解后可决系数最大准绳(见表四、五、六),拔取X3作为进入回归模子的第一个阐明

顺叙变量,形成一元回归模子。将其它阐明

顺叙变量分别插手模子,进一步回归,失掉照应的二元回归模子(见表七、八)。又按照调解后可决系数最大准绳,拔取X3、X2作为进入回归模子的两个阐明

顺叙变量,形成二元回归模子(见表九)。将X4插手模子,从回归的了局中发觉调解后可决系数小于以X3、X2作为阐明

顺叙变量失掉的调解后可决系数,故不能将X4插手到模子中,搁浅回归。咱们失掉一个带有常数项的二元回归模子,但发觉常数项的回归系数不明显,而且P值很大。

?2、异方差检讨

?常数项和X4系数的t值都不明显,且X4估量的系数不符合经济意思,u具有异方差。由于经由过程white检讨,失掉=0.597719,*18=4.781752,而χ为0.710721,前者大于后者,谢绝接收H0,阐明

顺叙具有异方差。

?3、自相干检讨

?由表2得d的统计量为0.966878,样本容量为n=18,在有三个阐明

顺叙变量的情形下,给定明显性程度α=0.05,则查D—W表的dl=0.933,du=1.696,4-du=2.304,4-dl=3.067,这时有0.933

六、模子批改

休学

?综合对模子的检讨和批改,咱们失掉上面的二元回归模子。

?????????????? Y=1.182556X2+1.787749X3

??????????????? (28.46965)?? (6.972621)

???????? =0.992632??? = 0.991771?? F=4.198969

?然而经由过程验证,在给定明显程度为0.05的情形下,F(3,12)=3.49〈40198969,阐明

顺叙F值不敷明显。但参数的P值都很小,又阐明

顺叙参数的估量很好。同时可决系数和批改可决系数都比拟大。咱们以为出现这样的了局也许是由于咱们不不影响农夫支出的其余次要因素斟酌进来,比方财产继承支出,农夫外出打工支出等。特别是从90岁月起农夫外出打工支出愈来愈成为农夫支出的首要成份。

七、模子剖析

??? 家庭运营纯支出和劳动者报答支出执行成农夫支出的次要形成部分,而当局转移支出对农夫支出的影响较小。

八、得出论断

??? 农夫支出的组成布局比拟繁多,支出添加很迟缓,缺少新的增进动力。目前,我国的城乡差异非常明显,国度有必要对农业加大投入,经由过程多种道路添加农夫的支出。

?当前农夫支出增进迟缓,城、乡支出差异扩展,经由模子剖析咱们得知,在农夫支出形成中,家庭运营纯支出和劳动者报答支出是往常影响农夫支出的首要组成部分。从历久剖析,鞭策轨制翻新完成土地资源大范围内的流转和平正设置,促进农业产业化的发展。加大对农业的投入?国度应挑选适度的歪斜政策,各级财务应进一步调解财务支出布局,继续添加农业投入以及同时加强农业的基础设施建设,使农夫有效地躲避天然危险和市场危险,还应鼎力搞活农产品畅通流畅,降低交易成本,确保农产品代价的完成,迅速转化为货泉支出。转移乡村剩余劳动力,添加失业?等道路切实?加重农夫负担,为农夫增收发明可行前提。

九、参考文献

1、《四川省统计年鉴》(1986,1989,1992,1996,2000,2001,2002年)

2、《农夫支出、农夫负担与农夫布局调解》,夏永祥、赵文娟、陈雄伟等著,中国农业出书社出书

十、相干附表

表一:数据搜集??

obs?X2?X3?X4?Y

1984? 4.580000? 85.37000? 9.870000? 420.8300

1985? 17.56000? 271.4100? 24.48000? 460.2600

1986? 17.26000? 293.8300? 25.81000? 499.7600

1987? 18.98000? 321.3400? 27.96000? 552.9900

1988? 21.52000? 393.5600? 32.50000? 680.7500

1989? 23.88000? 432.0700? 37.04000? 760.9000

1990? 24.36000? 493.5500? 38.85000? 846.6900

1991? 22.28000? 520.1500? 47.28000? 915.7500

1992? 25.63000? 556.9200? 51.75000? 975.0000

1993? 120.9800? 527.8300? 45.55000? 1094.320

1994? 161.9800? 708.9000? 56.36000? 1518.650

1995? 208.5800? 860.4300? 67.92000? 1864.920

1996? 299.2000? 1066.130? 63.74000? 2364.490

1997? 365.4100? 1216.070? 85.97000? 2636.080

1998? 446.4600? 1231.190? 94.16000? 2738.390

1999? 万博亚洲,新万博娱乐manbetx,万博娱乐国际 530.4000? 1191.600? 101.7400? 2696.940

2000? 597.1600? 1203.960? 82.52000? 2829.780

2001? 651.7900? 1231.990? 70.86000? 2946.510

表二:运用OLS法举行参数估量

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/03/04?? Time: 15:20

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

C?41.34119?62.19720?0.664679?0.5171

X2?1.191660?0.259646?4.589561?0.0004

X3?1.950657?0.270998?7.198040?0.0000

X4?-2.874068?2.979974?-0.964461?0.3512

R-squared?0.993192???? Mean dependent var?1489.056

Adjusted R-squared?0.991733???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680

S.E. of regression?87.00281???? Akaike info criterion?11.96289

Sum squared resid?105972.9???? Schwarz criterion?12.16075

Log 万博亚洲,新万博娱乐manbetx,万博娱乐国际 likelihood?-103.6660???? F-statistic?680.7665

Durbin-Watson stat?0.966878???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000

表三:

White Heteroskedasticity demo:

F-statistic?2.724017???? Probability?0.071322

Obs*R-squared?10.75895???? Probability?0.096118

demo Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 10:18

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

C?47727.47?12741.11?3.745944?0.0032

X2?105.9312?111.1584?0.952975?0.3611

X2^2?-0.129873?0.115783?-1.121696?0.2859

X3?-112.2811?188.1352?-0.596811?0.5627

X3^2?0.063568?0.090898?0.699337?0.4989

X4?-280.0084?2425.960?-0.115422?0.9102

X4^2?0.477272?15.10410?0.031599?0.9754

R-squared?0.597719???? Mean dependent var?5887.381

Adjusted R-squared?0.378294???? S.D. dependent var?12608.31

S.E. of regression?9941.442???? Akaike info criterion?21.53211

Sum squared resid?1.09E+09???? Schwarz criterion?21.87837

Log likelihood?-186.7890???? F-statistic?2.724017

Durbin-Watson stat?1.483731???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.071322

表四:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:14

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

C?686.6958?87.91569?7.810844?0.0000

X2?4.059147?0.297372?13.65005?0.0000

R-squared?0.920919???? Mean dependent var?1489.056

Adjusted R-squared?0.915976???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680

S.E. of regression?277.3659???? Akaike info criterion?14.19299

Sum squared resid?1230909.???? Schwarz criterion?14.29192

Log likelihood?-125.7369???? F-statistic?186.3238

Durbin-Watson stat?0.362057???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000

表五:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:15

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.? ?

C?-192.0546?68.30711?-2.811634?0.0125?

X3?2.400387?0.085546?28.05966?0.0000?

R-squared?0.980083???? Mean dependent var?1489.056?

Adjusted R-squared?0.978838???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680?

S.E. of regression?139.1956???? Akaike info criterion?12.81408?

Sum squared resid?310006.7???? Schwarz criterion?12.91301?

Log likelihood?-113.3267???? F-statistic?787.3446?

Durbin-Watson stat?0.765750???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000?

表六:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:15

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.? ?

C?-337.4843?192.5772?-1.752462?0.0988?

X4?34.09279?3.245852?10.50350?0.0000?

R-squared?0.873341???? Mean dependent var?1489.056?

Adjusted R-squared?0.865425???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680?

S.E. of regression?351.0222???? Akaike info criterion?14.66401?

Sum squared resid?1971465.???? Schwarz criterion?14.76295?

Log likelihood?-129.9761???? F-statistic?110.3234?

Durbin-Watson stat?1.036959???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000?

表七:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:29

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

C?28.57410?60.63060?0.471282?0.6442

X3?1.728166?0.141875?12.18093?0.0000

X2?1.265565?0.247503?5.113343?0.0001

R-squared?0.992739???? Mean dependent var?1489.056

Adjusted R-squared?0.991771???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680

S.E. of regression?86.80011???? Akaike info criterion?11.91610

Sum squared resid?113013.9???? Schwarz criterion?12.06450

Log likelihood?-104.2449???? F-statistic?1025.458

Durbin-Watson stat?0.979106???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000

表八:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:32

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

C?-130.3783?75.96440?-1.716308?0.1067

X3?2.840960?0.289327?9.819215?0.0000

X4?-6.910469?4.353208?-1.587443?0.1333

R-squared?0.982948???? Mean dependent var?1489.056

Adjusted R-squared?0.980674???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680

S.E. of regression?133.0206???? Akaike info criterion?12.76990

Sum squared resid?265417.1???? Schwarz criterion?12.91829

Log likelihood?-111.9291???? F-statistic?432.3305

Durbin-Watson stat?0.874533???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000

表九:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:34

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

C?41.34119?62.19720?0.664679?0.5171

X3?1.950657?0.270998?7.198040?0.0000

X2?1.191660?0.259646?4.589561?0.0004

X4?-2.874068?2.979974?-0.964461?0.3512

R-squared?0.993192???? Mean dependent var?1489.056

Adjusted R-squared?0.991733???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680

S.E. of regression?87.00281???? Akaike info criterion?11.96289

Sum squared resid?105972.9???? Schwarz criterion?12.16075

Log likelihood?-103.6660???? F-statistic?680.7665

Durbin-Watson stat?0.966878???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.000000

?

表十:

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/04/04?? Time: 11:36

Sample: 1984 2001

Included observations: 18

Variable?Coefficient?Std. Error?t-Statistic?Prob.?

X3?1.787749?0.062795?28.46965?0.0000

X2?1.182556?0.169600?6.972621?0.0000

R-squared?0.992632???? Mean dependent var?1489.056

Adjusted R-squared?0.992171???? S.D. dependent var?956.8680

S.E. of regression?84.66378???? Akaike info criterion?11.81969

Sum squared resid?114687.3???? Schwarz criterion?11.91862

Log likelihood?-104.3772???? Durbin-Watson stat?1.008436

F-statistic

?4.198969

???? Prob(F-statistic)?0.021251